Trump’s Nowruz ‘gift’ to Tehran: John Bolton

Iranians began celebrating Nowruz on March 21, and while the country is on holiday, not many people feel happy and relaxed as the news signals stormy days ahead. The fact that US President Donald Trump’s current focus is on Iran has not escaped the Iranian public, who are keeping an anxious eye on the White House. 
It was late in the evening in Iran on March 22 when journalists who use proxy accounts to access Twitter and Facebook saw President Trump’s appointment of John Bolton as national security adviser. 
A few days before Nowruz they had heard of Mike Pompeo’s nomination as secretary of state. They hadn’t had time to swallow that change before Bolton was on their plate too. As the journalist Sara Masoumi observed: “Trump’s decision is not to tear up the JCPOA, but to destroy our Nowruz vacation.”
So is it likely, as she speculates, that the changes in the Trump administration are aimed at increasing the pressure on the Tehran regime without actually taking action? Or what is Trump’s aim in shaking up his cabinet if he wants to remain committed to the JCPOA, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal?
In my view it would be optimistic and naive to think in this way; even politicians in Iran see the possibility of US withdrawal from the Iran deal by Trump’s deadline of May 12, and the return of economic sanctions. 
Trump has asked the European Union to amend the Iran deal in a way he wants, but the JCPOA is an international treaty backed up by a UN Security Council resolution, not a one-to-one agreement between Tehran and Washington that either side can change at any time. In addition, Iran has refused to accept any amendments, or any negotiations to address Trump’s concerns. 

In my view it would be optimistic and naive to think in this way; even politicians in Iran see the possibility of US withdrawal from the Iran deal by Trump’s deadline of May 12, and the return of economic sanctions.

Camelia Entekhabifard

There is some speculation that Trump may decertify Iran’s compliance with the deal, but also offer Tehran separate negotiations to resolve, once and for all, the issues between the two countries. But with John Bolton as national security adviser, given his tough record with the regime in Tehran, there is pessimism that the nuclear deal will survive past May. 
In his Nowruz greeting, Trump expressed his sympathy with the Iranian people, who have a rich heritage and culture but suffer greatly. He attacked the government in Tehran, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which he described as “a hostile army that brutalizes and steals from the Iranian people to fund terrorism abroad.” He said the IRGC had spent more than $16 billion to prop up the Assad regime and support militants and terrorists in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and he accused it of impoverishing Iran’s people, damaging its environment and suppressing civil rights. 
It is interesting that the message was focused on the IRGC rather than the Islamic Republic itself. My speculation is that Trump intends to go after the Guards, with the changes in his cabinet aimed at limiting their regional activities and support for Assad in Syria and Hizbollah in Lebanon. 
As for the Iranian people, they are not exactly in love with the nuclear deal because they have seen no benefits, as the street protests in December and January proved. There are still scattered protests in small cities and towns because of economic hardship and the public’s frustration with the failure of Hassan Rouhani’s government to make any improvements, despite its promises.
Now, for most people, uncertainty about what would happen if the deal collapses is the big issue leading up to Trump’s decision in May. For the government in Tehran, it is clear that public anger could lead to a major protest as more people refuse to tolerate the hardship, dictatorship and censorship. 
The arrogant regime in Tehran refused the olive branches offered by Barack Obama, and refused to normalize relations with the US or engage in regional talks. The nuclear deal itself was supposed to be a basis for further negotiation over regional issues, such as Syria, but Iran has shown no interest in talking. 
Now Iran will be back in the headline again in a few weeks — and this time it will be about fixing or nixing the nuclear deal.
 

•  Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard